Tom Lee Spots ‘Good Sign’ as Ethereum ETFs Buy $189M in Biggest Day for 10 Months

About 169,770 ETH left centralized exchanges on net in a single day, Santiment reported on Oct. 23, the largest daily withdrawal in more than four months and worth roughly $407 million at a $2,400 reference price. The supply reading landed as US spot Ethereum ETFs sat on more than $1 billion of net withdrawals through Oct. 22, though Farside Investors' table showed a preliminary $4 million inflow for Oct. 23, with one fund's figure still unavailable. CryptoSlate reported the figures on Oct. 23, framing the exchange outflow as a potential bottoming signal while ETF demand had been moving the other way. Santiment's last larger withdrawal episode came June 5, when roughly 223,800 ETH left exchanges near what it calls a local buying opportunity.

Background

The sources describe two opposing forces in Ethereum markets. On the supply side, Santiment tracks coins moving between monitored exchange addresses and other destinations; exchange balances proxy for coins immediately available for sale on centralized venues, so a large net withdrawal can reduce that inventory. On the demand side, Farside Investors tracks net money entering and leaving regulated funds, a different measure with different units and time frames. Farside's daily data showed US spot Ethereum ETFs with more than $1 billion in net outflows from Oct. 1 to Oct. 22, with 14 of 16 sessions negative; Oct. 13 at $25 million and Oct. 21 at $15 million were the exceptions, and the Oct. 21 inflow gave way to a $111 million outflow the next day. The backdrop is a technology-led risk-off market: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% to 26,009 on Oct. 22, its steepest drop since June, on worries about AI spending, while the Dow was roughly flat and the Russell 2000 edged up. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% in September and meets Oct. 27 and 28, and Treasury yields fell sharply on Oct. 22 as investors sought safety. Alpha Finance's Oct. 23 tracker finds 60% of eligible major altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over 90 days and 27% over seven days, below the 75% the index calls altcoin season. Trader 0xsweep said in an Oct. 17 post that whales were building ETH longs like there's no tomorrow.

What happened

Santiment reported Oct. 23 that about 169,770 ETH left centralized exchanges on net in one day, the largest daily withdrawal in more than four months and worth about $407 million at the $2,400 reference price, according to CryptoSlate. The last bigger episode came June 5, when roughly 223,800 ETH left exchanges near what Santiment calls a local buying opportunity; that reading was about 32% larger than October's, and the source notes a single precedent gives a hypothesis in place of a trading rule. CryptoSlate adds that coins leaving exchanges can go to self-custody, staking or institutional custody, and the data leaves their owners and motives unidentified. Separately, Farside Investors' daily data showed US spot Ethereum ETFs had more than $1 billion in net outflows from Oct. 1 to Oct. 22, with 14 of 16 sessions negative, and a preliminary $4 million inflow for Oct. 23 with one fund's figure still unavailable. Alpha Finance's Oct. 23 tracker found 60% of eligible major altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over 90 days and 27% over seven days, against a 75% threshold the index calls altcoin season. Santiment treats $2,400 as the reference price, $2,500 as the level that would strengthen the rebound case and about $2,330 as the level that would weaken it, all conditional technical references. From $2,400, $2,500 is 4.2% higher and $2,330 is 2.9% lower.

Market impact

The numbers in the sources point in different directions. Santiment's 169,770 ETH net exchange withdrawal was worth about $407 million at the $2,400 reference price, the largest such daily withdrawal in more than four months, with the June 5 episode of roughly 223,800 ETH about 32% larger. Farside Investors' data showed more than $1 billion in net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs between Oct. 1 and Oct. 22, with 14 of 16 sessions negative; the exceptions were $25 million on Oct. 13 and $15 million on Oct. 21, and the Oct. 21 inflow gave way to a $111 million outflow the next day. The preliminary Oct. 23 ETF reading was a $4 million inflow, with one fund's figure still unavailable. Alpha Finance's Oct. 23 tracker put 60% of eligible major altcoins ahead of Bitcoin over 90 days and 27% over seven days, below the 75% altcoin-season line. The broader market was risk-off: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% to 26,009 on Oct. 22, its steepest drop since June, while the Dow was roughly flat and the Russell 2000 edged up, and Treasury yields fell sharply as investors sought safety. The Fed's target range sits at 3.75% to 4% after a September raise, with a meeting Oct. 27 and 28.

Why it matters

The sources frame the exchange withdrawal as a supply signal that needs demand behind it. CryptoSlate lays out two conditional paths. If ETH holds above $2,500 while withdrawals continue, ETF flows turn positive for several sessions and seven-day altcoin breadth climbs back toward 50%, the supply signal would have demand behind it. If ETH slips below $2,330 as redemptions continue and seven-day breadth drops toward 25%, the withdrawal looks like an isolated supply event that failed to stop the decline. The source also cautions that a hawkish Fed repricing or another energy spike would widen that path. Because exchange balances proxy for coins immediately available for sale, a large net withdrawal can reduce that inventory, but the data leaves owners and motives unidentified. The divergence between Santiment's exchange tracking and Farside's fund flows matters because they use different units and time frames, so a supply-side signal can coexist with continued ETF redemptions. Alpha Finance's breadth readings add a further distinction: an ETH-specific rebound can coexist with weakness across smaller tokens, and ETH/BTC plus the seven-day breadth reading would distinguish that from a broad altcoin rotation.