Standard Chartered says Bitcoin could retest $126K before year-end

On August 21, 2026, Standard Chartered said its $100,000 year-end Bitcoin forecast may now be too low, according to a Friday note from Geoff Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital asset research, shared with crypto media and reported by crypto_news_dot. Bitcoin had climbed about 24% over the past week to around $76,844, CoinGecko data cited in the report showed, putting it roughly 39% below the bank's $100,000 target and about 64% below its $126,000 record high. Kendrick wrote that for the first time this year there is a risk his year-end forecast is too low, and said Bitcoin could retest its previous all-time high before year-end, with the recovery potentially accelerating after October 6.

Background

The report places the call against a volatile stretch for Bitcoin in 2026. According to crypto_news_dot, BTC spent much of the past two months around the $60,000 to $65,000 range before the latest rally. Standard Chartered had already defended its $100,000 target through earlier stress: on June 4, the report says, the bank retained the forecast even after Bitcoin fell more than 15% in a week and briefly moved toward $61,000, and only nine days later it kept the same forecast after BTC fell toward $59,000 and recovered to roughly $63,500. Kendrick at the time described the move toward $59,000 as the likely low of the cycle and tied the decline to forced selling, weak ETF flows and liquidity stress. The report also traces an improving ETF backdrop: on July 3 it said spot Bitcoin ETF inflows ended a 10-day negative streak after U.S.-listed funds recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, per SoSoValue data cited at the time, with Bitcoin near $61,700. By July 21, BTC had returned above $65,000 as spot ETF inflows extended to five consecutive sessions, trading around $65,245, up about 5% over seven days, while $70,000 remained an important resistance level. The latest rally has since carried Bitcoin well beyond both $65,000 and $70,000, the report says.

What happened

The sequence in the source is as follows. Bitcoin climbed about 24% over the past week to around $76,844, according to CoinGecko data cited by crypto_news_dot on August 21, 2026. That move prompted Standard Chartered to say its $100,000 year-end forecast may now be too low as the cryptocurrency moves closer to its $126,000 all-time high. Geoff Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital asset research, said in a Friday note shared with crypto media that the latest Bitcoin rally has been driven mainly by short liquidations, while recovering inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could provide another source of demand if the advance continues. Kendrick also said low open interest across the market leaves room for investors to rebuild positions as Bitcoin rises. He wrote that for the first time this year there is now a risk his end-year forecast of $100,000 is too low. Kendrick said Bitcoin could move toward its previous record before the end of the year, with the recovery potentially accelerating after October 6, a date that corresponds closely with Bitcoin's 2025 market peak, after which the cryptocurrency entered an extended decline that continued into 2026. The report notes Standard Chartered has not formally replaced its $100,000 year-end forecast with a $126,000 target; Kendrick instead described the all-time high as a level Bitcoin may revisit if the current recovery gathers momentum, while acknowledging the existing forecast could prove conservative. The report contrasts this with the bank's June stance, when it retained the $100,000 target through a more than 15% weekly drop and a move toward $59,000 that Kendrick called the likely low of the cycle.

Market impact

The numbers in the source frame both the rally and the distance still to travel. Bitcoin was trading at $76,844 at the time of the report, up roughly 24% over seven days, according to CoinGecko data. At that level, BTC remained about 39% below Standard Chartered's $100,000 forecast and roughly 64% below the $126,000 record high. The report says Bitcoin had spent much of the past two months around the $60,000 to $65,000 range before the latest advance, and that it has since risen more than $17,000 above the June low. On flows, the source says inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have started recovering after weak institutional demand contributed to pressure earlier in the year. It cites earlier milestones: on July 3, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows ended a 10-day negative streak after U.S.-listed funds recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, according to SoSoValue data cited by crypto.news at the time, with Bitcoin trading near $61,700. By July 21, BTC had returned above $65,000 as spot ETF inflows extended to five consecutive sessions, trading around $65,245, up about 5% over seven days, while $70,000 remained an important resistance level. The report also notes that low open interest means fewer leveraged positions, which Kendrick says leaves room for investors to rebuild positions as Bitcoin rises.

Why it matters

The source supports a few consequences. First, the composition of demand matters: Kendrick attributes the rally mainly to short liquidations, which are forced buying, and flags recovering spot ETF inflows as a source of demand that does not depend solely on traders being forced out of short positions. If ETF flows continue to recover, the advance would rest on a broader base than the one described so far. Second, the October 6 date gives the market a test: it corresponds closely with Bitcoin's 2025 market peak, after which the cryptocurrency entered an extended decline that continued into 2026, and Kendrick says the recovery could accelerate after that anniversary, placing focus on whether BTC can maintain its recovery once the market moves beyond it. Third, low open interest is framed as dry powder rather than a warning, since fewer leveraged positions leave room for investors to rebuild as Bitcoin rises. Finally, the report is careful about the forecast itself: Standard Chartered has not formally replaced its $100,000 year-end target with $126,000, so the $126,000 level is described as a possible revisit rather than a new official call, even as Kendrick acknowledges the existing forecast could prove conservative.