Polymarket Files for US Margin Trading, Chasing Kalshi Into Leveraged Prediction Markets

Polymarket has filed to offer US margin trading, according to a DL News report dated 10 July 2026, as it chases rival Kalshi into leveraged prediction markets. The filing comes as Bernstein, the research house, extended its digital assets coverage to prediction markets, and as Hyperliquid launched its first outcome contracts over the weekend. Hyperliquid's first Bitcoin outcome market did roughly three times the volume of equivalent markets on Polymarket and Kalshi combined, according to Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi. Combined monthly volumes across Polymarket and Kalshi hit nearly $24 billion in April, Bernstein data shows, with Kalshi holding a 62% market share, up from 55% in January.

Background

The DL News report frames the Polymarket filing against a broader shift in prediction markets. Bernstein has just extended its digital assets research coverage to include prediction markets as one of three trends it is tracking alongside tokenisation and stablecoins. The Bernstein memo, shared with DL News by analysts Gautam Chhugani and colleagues, argues that prediction market contracts give macro-focused funds a cleaner way to hedge event risk than traditional instruments, because a binary contract settles solely on the outcome, with premium, maximum loss and payoff known in advance. Kalshi moved first on the institutional front, executing its first bespoke block trade last week, brokered by Greenlight Commodities, between a Houston-based environmental hedge fund and Jump Trading Group, tied to the clearing price at California's May carbon allowance auction. Clear Street has partnered with Kalshi to become the first institutional futures commission merchant providing regulated clearing access to prediction markets for hedge funds. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's prediction product, HIP-4, inherits the platform's institutional credentials: FalconX launched prime brokerage margin financing for Hyperliquid in February with cross-venue margining, Ripple Prime added Hyperliquid as its first DeFi venue in the same month, and Anchorage Digital supports HYPE custody and staking. Hyperliquid processes $6 billion in daily derivatives volume.

What happened

The DL News report states that Polymarket has filed for US margin trading, chasing Kalshi into leveraged prediction markets. The report does not give the filing date beyond the article date of 10 July 2026, nor the terms of the filing. According to the same report, Bernstein says the move signals prediction markets are becoming institutional hedging tools. The Bernstein note, shared with DL News by analysts Gautam Chhugani and colleagues on Monday, frames Hyperliquid's launch against a broader institutional shift. Hyperliquid, the decentralised finance exchange processing $6 billion in daily derivatives volume, launched its first outcome contracts over the weekend. According to Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, its first Bitcoin outcome market did roughly three times the volume of equivalent markets on Polymarket and Kalshi combined. Jung told DL News that this proves having a shared liquidity layer is effective in converting users, and that binary markets are an obvious next step in building the full financial stack on Hyperliquid. The report also notes that Kalshi moved first on the institutional front, executing its first bespoke block trade last week, brokered by Greenlight Commodities, between a Houston-based environmental hedge fund and Jump Trading Group, tied to the clearing price at California's May carbon allowance auction. Clear Street has partnered with Kalshi to become the first institutional futures commission merchant providing regulated clearing access to prediction markets for hedge funds. The report adds that HIP-4 launched with Bitcoin price outcomes but is expected to expand to HYPE and Ether contracts, and to move beyond its current 15-minute timeframes.

Market impact

The sources provide several figures. Combined monthly volumes across Polymarket and Kalshi hit nearly $24 billion in April, according to Bernstein data. Kalshi now commands a 62% market share, up from 55% in January, driven by its dominance in sports betting, which accounts for roughly 72% of its volume. Hyperliquid processes $6 billion in daily derivatives volume. Its first Bitcoin outcome market did roughly three times the volume of equivalent markets on Polymarket and Kalshi combined, according to Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi. The 2026 World Cup is already Polymarket's second-largest market by all-time volume at $884 million. The report also notes that full permissionless deployment for third-party teams is expected around mid-June, timed to coincide with the FIFA World Cup. No price data for Polymarket or Kalshi shares is given, as neither is publicly traded in the sources. The report does not state the size of Polymarket's margin trading filing or any expected leverage limits.

Why it matters

The DL News report supports several consequences. Bernstein's extension of coverage to prediction markets signals how seriously Wall Street is taking the sector, and the Bernstein memo argues that prediction market contracts give macro-focused funds a cleaner way to hedge event risk than traditional instruments such as foreign exchange options or commodity exposure, which introduce basis risk. Kalshi's first bespoke block trade and Clear Street's partnership as the first institutional futures commission merchant providing regulated clearing access to prediction markets for hedge funds show institutional infrastructure forming. Hyperliquid's launch puts it in direct competition with Polymarket and Kalshi, and its early Bitcoin outcome volume, roughly three times the equivalent markets on Polymarket and Kalshi combined according to Jung, suggests a shared liquidity layer can convert users. Jung says the milestones to track are volume and open interest growth, and which markets get added next. The report also notes that HIP-4 is expected to expand to HYPE and Ether contracts and beyond 15-minute timeframes, and that full permissionless deployment for third-party teams is expected around mid-June, timed to the FIFA World Cup.