Reuters Poll: UK Inflation Seen Averaging 3.1% in 2026, Growth at 1.1%

On 18 August 2026, a Reuters poll reported that UK inflation is expected to average 3.1% in 2026, with growth at 1.1%, according to the headline supplied with these sources. The same day brought several official releases: the Bank of England published its FXJSC semi-annual turnover survey, showing average daily UK FX turnover hit a record $4,609 billion in April 2026, up 20% on the October 2025 survey and 14% year on year. The ECB published Consumer Expectations Survey results showing median 12-month inflation expectations at 3.1% in September, up from 3.0%. The EBA and a UK government readout on a PM call with Chile's President Kast also carried 18 August datelines.

Background

The sources describe several distinct threads. The Bank of England's FXJSC survey, conducted in April 2026 with 25 financial institutions active in the UK FX market, records a record high in average daily UK FX turnover of $4,609 billion, a 20% increase relative to the October 2025 survey and a 14% year-on-year increase versus April 2025. Growth was seen across all instrument types: FX swaps rose by $332 billion to $2,172 billion, FX spot increased 18% to $1,253 billion, and FX options increased 49% to $309 billion. USD/EUR remained the most traded pair at $1,094 billion daily, 24% of overall UK FX turnover. Since April 2008, average daily UK FX turnover has risen from $1,815 billion to $4,609 billion. Separately, the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey for September 2026, released 23 October 2026, shows median perceived inflation over the past 12 months rising to 3.6% from 3.5%, 12-month expectations rising to 3.1% from 3.0%, and three- and five-year expectations unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and expected unemployment 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. A Reuters report carried by cryptobriefing.com covers Serbia's parliamentary election and a prediction market on the student-backed list, unrelated to UK inflation. The EBA and gov.uk items contain no inflation or growth figures.

What happened

The headline event is a Reuters poll, dated 18 August 2026, reporting that UK inflation is seen averaging 3.1% in 2026 and growth at 1.1%. The sources provided do not include the Reuters poll itself, so its methodology, sample and respondents cannot be verified here. On the same date, the Bank of England published the FXJSC semi-annual turnover survey for April 2026. The Bank's release states that 25 financial institutions active in the UK FX market participated, and that average daily UK FX turnover reached a record high of $4,609 billion, a 20% increase relative to the October 2025 survey and a 14% year-on-year increase compared with April 2025. The Bank's release states that growth relative to October 2025 was seen across all instrument types, with FX swaps recording the largest increase, rising by $332 billion to $2,172 billion, FX spot up 18% to $1,253 billion and FX options up 49% to $309 billion. It states that USD/EUR, USD/GBP and USD/JPY remained the top three traded pairs, with USD/EUR the most traded at $1,094 billion daily, 24% of overall UK FX turnover. The ECB's release states that in September the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5%, and median 12-month inflation expectations increased to 3.1% from 3.0%, while three- and five-year expectations were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%. The ECB release also states that expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -1.5% from -1.2%, and expected unemployment 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. The EBA item and the gov.uk PM call readout with Chile's President Kast carry 18 August datelines but contain no UK inflation or growth figures.

Market impact

The only market figures in the sources come from the Bank of England's FXJSC survey and the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey. The Bank's release states that average daily UK FX turnover reached a record high of $4,609 billion in April 2026, a 20% increase relative to the October 2025 survey and a 14% year-on-year increase compared with April 2025. By instrument, FX swaps rose by $332 billion to $2,172 billion, FX spot increased 18% to $1,253 billion, and FX options increased 49% to $309 billion. USD/EUR remained the most traded currency pair in the UK, with average daily turnover of $1,094 billion, making up 24% of overall UK FX turnover in April 2026. The Bank's release states that since April 2008, overall average daily UK FX turnover has risen steadily from $1,815 billion to $4,609 billion. The ECB's release states that expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months' time remained unchanged from July at 4.9%, with the top income quintile expecting 4.4% and the bottom quintile 5.7%. It states that consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, higher than in August (3.4%). The sources contain no market pricing for UK inflation or growth, and no figures from the Reuters poll beyond the headline averages of 3.1% and 1.1%.

Why it matters

The sources support a limited set of consequences. The Bank of England's release states that UK FX turnover reached a record high and that growth relative to the October 2025 survey was seen across all instrument types, with FX options up 49% and FX spot up 18%. It also states that USD/EUR remained the most traded pair at 24% of overall UK FX turnover, and that turnover has risen steadily from $1,815 billion in April 2008 to $4,609 billion. The ECB's release states that median 12-month inflation expectations rose to 3.1% from 3.0%, that three- and five-year expectations were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, that growth expectations fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and that expected unemployment rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. It states that respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the top quintile, and that younger respondents reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older ones. The ECB release also states that the net percentage of households reporting tighter access to credit increased, as did the net percentage expecting tighter credit conditions. The sources do not establish a causal link between the Reuters poll figures and any market move.