Solana Policy Institute CEO says Clarity Act in 'August recess purgatory,' gives it 10% odds before midterms

Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine said on August 18, 2026, at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, that the CLARITY Act has roughly a 10% chance of passing before November's midterm elections, describing the US crypto market-structure bill as stuck in 'August recess purgatory' after more than a year of Senate negotiation. He told The Block the measure faces a September 15 procedural vote that would be only the first of several steps needed to advance it, and said he is 'hopeful, but realistic about its odds.' Prediction markets show similar doubt: Polymarket prices a 21% chance the bill becomes law by the end of 2026 on more than $7 million in volume, while Kalshi sits at 23%, down from about 50% a month earlier.

Background

The sources describe the CLARITY Act as a US crypto market-structure framework that the Senate has been discussing for more than a year, and Whitehouse-Levine characterized it as roughly the sixth attempt at such legislation in the United States. He said the legislative process has grown more complex as the financial services industry has become more involved, with banks and large-scale lenders focused on language around stablecoin yield provisions, and securities firms and derivatives businesses focused on clauses that could affect their business. According to the sources, President Donald Trump's personal involvement in crypto has created political difficulties for Democrats, adding another layer of complexity. Whitehouse-Levine also noted that congressional members and staff have spent tens of thousands of hours developing the framework over more than a year, and that a failure would represent a large opportunity cost, effectively making that work sunk costs. Against that backdrop, he argued regulators should act rather than wait for Congress, pointing to the Securities and Exchange Commission's recent proposal, Regulation Crypto Assets, which would provide exemptions for certain digital asset registration requirements. The Solana Policy Institute has called for more regulatory clarity around token fundraising and exemptions for trading securities and derivatives onchain in the United States, and Whitehouse-Levine said the organization would now focus on regulatory action as relying on Congress becomes less practical with each passing day of the legislative calendar.

What happened

Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026 on August 18, Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine gave the CLARITY Act a ten percent chance of passing before the November midterm elections, according to bitcoinfoundation.org, which reported that he described the bill as effectively stuck during the August recess after more than a year of Senate negotiation and said it was increasingly unlikely to pass before the end of the current Congress. Bloomingbit reported that he made the estimate when asked about the bill's prospects before the midterms and said the bill is 'stuck in the purgatory of the August recess,' adding that the Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on September 15 to begin consideration of the CLARITY Act, which he said would be only the first of several steps required to advance the bill. Coinmarketcap.com reported that Whitehouse-Levine told The Block, 'Right now, I would say it's in August recess purgatory,' and 'As the end of the clock winds down on this Congress, getting the bill done becomes increasingly more difficult,' describing his position as 'hopeful, but realistic about its odds.' Bloomingbit quoted him saying, 'I'm hopeful, but I'm looking at the odds realistically.' Coinmarketcap.com reported he said this attempt, which he described as the sixth such effort in the US, has attracted more competing interests than previous ones, and quoted him saying, 'You have all these new interests that have woken up to the fact that, oh no, the Clarity Act could move, we better get their act together,' adding that more stakeholders 'always makes it harder.' Bloomingbit quoted a similar remark: 'New stakeholders are entering the debate because they recognize that the CLARITY Act could actually move,' and 'The more stakeholders there are, the harder it always is to reach consensus.'

Market impact

The sources offer no token prices or trading flows, only prediction-market figures. According to bitcoinfoundation.org, Polymarket assigns a 21% chance that the Clarity Act would pass and go into effect by the end of the year, with over $7 million traded, while Kalshi assigns a 23% chance, which the source describes as less than half of the probability assigned less than a month earlier. Bloomingbit reported the same Polymarket figure of 21% with trading volume exceeding $7 million, and said the Kalshi probability of 23% is down sharply from about 50% a month ago. Coinmarketcap.com likewise reported Polymarket at 21% on more than $7 million in trading volume and Kalshi at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago. The sources frame these prediction-market readings as reflecting fading expectations for the bill's passage, and note that prediction markets are more optimistic than the 10% estimate Whitehouse-Levine gave at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026. No other quantitative market data, including prices, fund flows, or exchange volumes, appears in the provided sources.

Why it matters

The sources frame the significance around timing and institutional responsibility. Whitehouse-Levine said that if the bill fails, the tens of thousands of hours Congress and congressional staff have spent on it over the past year would effectively become sunk costs, calling a collapse a 'massive opportunity cost,' according to coinmarketcap.com and bitcoinfoundation.org. Because the window for congressional action is narrowing, he argued regulators should move first: 'Expectations that Congress can pass the bill are declining, so I hope regulators move quickly,' he said, per Bloomingbit, adding, 'We can't afford to keep waiting for Congress.' Coinmarketcap.com quoted him saying, 'I am hopeful that the regulatory agencies move quickly, because my hope in Congress's ability to deliver is diminishing.' The sources tie this to the Securities and Exchange Commission's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, which would create exemptions for digital assets from certain registration requirements. The Solana Policy Institute said it plans to focus on exemptions that could expand token-based fundraising and onchain trading of securities and derivatives in the US, with Whitehouse-Levine saying, 'We're going to be pretty focused on these regulatory actions now.' The sources also note that a September 15 procedural vote would be only the first of several steps, so passage remains contingent on multiple votes.